ChatGPT’s Growth Is Slowing Down, and That Could Spell Trouble for OpenAI’s IPO

ChatGPT had a hell of a run. For a while, it felt like everyone and their mother was downloading the app, asking it to write poems about their cat, or generate passive-aggressive emails. But the numbers are starting to tell a different story.

According to fresh data from Sensor Tower, ChatGPT saw a 132% increase in uninstalls year-over-year in April. That’s bad enough, but March was worse: uninstalls spiked 413% year-over-year, right after OpenAI announced a partnership with the Pentagon in February. Some users clearly weren’t thrilled about their friendly AI chatbot cozying up to the military-industrial complex.

Now, ChatGPT is still growing its user base. It’s not like people are abandoning ship entirely. But the rate of growth is slowing down fast. In January, monthly active users grew 168% year-over-year. By April, that figure had dropped to 78%. That’s still a lot of new users, but the trajectory is unmistakable: the hockey stick is starting to flatten.

Sensor Tower notes that ChatGPT still has a “substantially larger user base” than most competitors, but that’s cold comfort when you’re trying to convince investors you’re the next trillion-dollar company. OpenAI is reportedly eyeing an IPO, and slowing growth plus rising uninstalls is not the kind of story you want to tell on a roadshow.

What’s driving the exodus? I think there are a few things at play. First, the novelty has worn off. ChatGPT was a revelation in late 2022, but now there are a dozen other chatbots that can do the same tricks — and some are free without the same privacy concerns. Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and even open-source models like Llama are eating into ChatGPT’s mindshare.

Second, the Pentagon deal rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. OpenAI was founded as a non-profit with lofty ideals about safe, democratic AI. Now it’s selling to the military. That’s a hard pivot to swallow for the tech-savvy early adopters who made ChatGPT a household name.

Third, there’s the practical side: ChatGPT is still pretty good, but it’s not getting dramatically better fast enough to justify sticking around when alternatives are catching up. The GPT-4 model is solid, but the competition isn’t standing still.

None of this means OpenAI is doomed. The company has deep pockets, a strong brand, and a massive installed base. But if the IPO is coming soon, these numbers are going to be a tough sell. Investors love growth stories. Slowing growth, rising churn, and a political backlash? That’s a harder pitch.

I’d keep an eye on the next few months. If the uninstall rate keeps climbing and growth keeps decelerating, OpenAI might need to pivot hard — or delay that IPO until the narrative improves.